Do you think better weather forecasting requires a degree in meteorology? Maybe a degree in statistical analysis would be more helpful. Consider this following new way to forecast the weather with more accuracy and less knowledge.

Friday, February 2, 2007 - Canon City, Colorado. I brought in my Canon City Daily Record from the porch when it arrived, at about 3 in the afternoon. I opened the newspaper to the page with the weather forecast, wondering how cold it would be the following day.

The paper forecast a high temperature was 13 degrees Fahrenheit. I knew this was way too low. Forecasts on television and on the internet said that we would reach 23 or 27 degrees the following day. I knew they were also too low, and I told my wife it would be in the 30s at least. The actual high temperature the next day was 53 degrees Fahrenheit.

No, that’s not a typo. The various weather forecasting “experts” were off by as much as 40 degrees - and that was for a simple 24-hour forecast. How could they be so far off? And how could I be better than them at forecasting the weather?

I can’t answer the first question. The weather here is more unpredictable than in most places. Also, perhaps the meteorologists follow there computer models too slavishly, even when their experience and intuition tell them to adjust the forecast.

However, I can answer the second question. My guess was closer because the forecasters were so consistent in the way they made their errors. Around this time, I remember counting something like 15 out of 20 days when all the various weather forecasts predicted a high temperature that was 5 degrees or more too low. All I needed to do was take the highest temperature forecast and add five degrees.

A New Weather Forecasting Model

Consistency in their errors was the key to my success. They weren’t forecasting too high one day and too low the next. They were wrong in the same ways over and over.

Are the errors as consistent in other parts of the country? That could be determined by looking at the statistics. Check the forecast highs and lows for the last 365 days, and check the actual temperatures for those days. See what the predicted probabilities of rain or snow were, and what actually happened.

Suppose that of the last 24 times a forecaster predicted a 50% chance of rain, it actually rained 18 times. He may have the best data, but he may be too conservative in how he uses it. Suppose this was not a fluke - which can be determined by doing more statistical analysis. You could know nothing about weather forecasting and provide a more accurate forecast simply by saying “A 75% chance of rain tomorrow” every time he said there was a 50% chance, right?

That’s the basis for this new forecasting model. First gather the statistical information on the forecasts of several weather forecasting services or meteorologists. Compare this to the actual weather that happened, and look for any consistencies in the inaccuracies. Then you create a computer program. As you enter each of these forecasts into it, they are adjusted for known tendencies. The result is a more accurate forecast.

If Forecaster A has managed over the last year to forecast a high that averages 4 degrees over the actual high, the computer adjusts for that. More sophisticated analysis might show that Forecaster B is consistently predicting a higher probability of rain than there is in the fall, but a lower probability of rain than there actually is in the spring. The computer can take this into account. Finally, it may work best if the adjusted forecasts of three or more sources are then averaged.

There really is no need to know anything at all about weather forecasting. This is based on the idea that even when experts have all the best knowledge and data, they sometimes apply it incorrectly, and do so in consistent ways. Don’t be surprised if some television stations get rid of their meteorologists and take advantage of this new weather forecasting idea.

“Now your electronic weather forecast, from our Statistical Analysis Weather Machine.”

Us as Humans tend to exploit our Environment. The same environment that we depend on for clean air and water. If our Environment does not protect us from harmful UV rays, does not prevent the spread of disease causing organisms and control pests then how will it sustain us?

Our Ecosystem has a natural balance which we should try to maintain. By using natural products we can reduce the amount of waste material we release into the environment. We can contribute to climate stability by simply planting more trees, which reduces Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere and hence reducing respiratory illnesses. A cleaner environment will have less disease causing organism and hence a healthier population.
Global Warming is a major concern. Global warming describes changes in climate due to human influence and results in increased temperatures. Naturally occurring processes contribute to Global Warming. Some of these include greenhouse emission of gases like Carbon Dioxide, water vapor, ozone, volcanic emissions and solar activity.

Increases in temperature can have devastating effects on us and our environment. Disease carrying organisms favor warmer temperatures, an example of which is the mosquito which spreads dengue fever which can be fatal. Increase in the number of disease causing organism can lead to increase in human mortality.
Other negative effects of Global Warming are increase in sea levels and subsequent damage to coastlines, increase in intensity and extreme weather conditions which can wipe out whole communities. Glacier retreat presents a problem. Fewer crops will be produced leading to greater malnutrition, less healthy individuals and animals.
Unnatural increase in greenhouse gases result from industrial production by burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

Many Environmental groups are advocating for action against Global Warming on the Consumer level. We can do our part by equipping our houses with environmentally friendly products and saving money at the same time through our purchases and changing lifestyles.

We need to be aware that their are Companies that also value our Environment, are aggressively promoting products that contribute to Healthy Lifestyles. Gaiam, pronounced Guy-Um, is one such Company. They are not only merchants for Health and fitness related products and services, but also are involved with conservation programs that so far have resulted in the planting of 52,000 trees which of course will increase absorption of Carbon Dioxide.

Gaiam’s products reflect Gaiam’s commitment to ensuring that our World is Healthier because we are utilizing eco-friendly products and Gaiam is delivering services that ensure our personal development.

In addition to media, Gaiam’s products include mind-body fitness and wellness solutions, organic cotton apparel and home textiles, and renewable energy solutions.
Let us renew our commitment to making ourselves both Healthy in mind and body and helping to preserve our home by using eco- friendly products.We might seem insignificant in the big picture, but our contributions will eventually add up.

Why would an outdoors sporting enthusiast need a portable handheld wind meter or pocket weather meter? There are many excellent reasons that a handheld weather meter is an essential tool if you’re involved in outdoor sports or other outdoors activities.

If you’re involved in an outdoors sporting event and need to know exact wind measurements and other weather conditions, a portable wind and/or weather meter is an indispensable tool. A weather measuring device such as this can help you ascertain the exact current weather conditions as well as forecast future climate conditions, giving you a distinct edge over the competition.

For instance if you’re sailing a sailboat, a pocket wind meter can help you gauge the current wind conditions and allow you to set your sails properly and for maximum speed. A more full featured weather meter which also measures barometric pressure can help you track developing storms.

Hang gliders, parachutists and balloonists also rely on knowing current wind conditions as well as the altitude and barometric air pressure. A more full featured handheld weather meter which provides measurements such as these is a necessity for them. It can literally mean the difference between life and death!

Hikers, campers and backpackers as well as skiers and hunters can also benefit greatly from a portable weather meter. The ability to easily measure barometric pressure and dew point can help them predict upcoming weather conditions and the ability to measure the wind chill and heat index could quite possibly save their lives when extreme weather hits their area.

Amateur as well as professional pilots will also tell you that they find a full featured pocket weather meter to be an indispensable tool. Whether they are piloting a private plane, helicopter, ultralight or glider they all find the ability to have immediate and accurate measurements of wind speed, altitude, barometric pressure and density altitude to be of paramount importance.

In summary, if you’re an extreme sporting enthusiast or just simply enjoy a good camping trip or hike, a portable wind meter or handheld weather meter is an essential tool. A weather measuring device such as this can keep you aware of current weather conditions and alerted to future weather conditions which could put a damper on your game or even worse threaten your life.

To understand a weather pattern, no matter where in the world it might occur, it is necessary to know about the interaction of the sun with the Earth, its atmosphere and the air masses that move around the globe. Much of the weather change that we experience on Earth is caused by, or includes, the uneven heat distributed throughout the atmosphere. If the sun heated the land, the oceans and the air at the same level all over the world, there would be no need for the atmosphere to attempt a state of equilibrium.

Simply stated, weather forecasts look at how warm air masses and cold air masses interact, even collide, to create certain conditions. For example, warm air will rise until it comes in contact with a boundary called the tropopause. This is basically a level separating the troposphere and stratosphere that warm air cannot break through.

When an air mass bumps against this barrier it generally spreads in the direction of the poles. As the air cools it moves back toward the Earth at about 30 degrees latitude north and south of the equator. The drop of such an air mass usually results in an area of high pressure, with its common clear skies and little or no precipitation.

While it is not easy to predict weather, over the years meteorologists and other scientists have discovered that the sinking air mass 30 degrees from the equator pushing out whatever air mass is there. The displaced air returns to an area closer to the equator and to low pressure. Sailors have given this air movement the name “trade winds.” Eventually the movement of the air mass loses its steam and the “dead” areas around the equator at this time were known as doldrums. The label for this general type of air movement is Hadley cell, because George Hadley, a scientist from England, first described the phenomenon in the 1700s.

But some of the air at the equator rises and, instead of dropping back toward the ground 30 degrees north or south of the equator, continues on toward the North Pole or South Pole. Even the strongest air mass won’t always make it all the way to one of the poles, however. The warmer air comes into contact with much cooler air at about 60 degrees north of the equator and south of the equator. Thus the name “polar front.”

In this case, the warmer air rises above the polar air mass and much of it makes a return trip toward the equator. The air mass may then sink toward the Earth at the 30 degrees latitude mentioned earlier. This weather phenomenon, called Ferrel cells, was first identified by William Ferrel about 150 years ago. In a slight twist on all this air mass movement, some air does continue on to the North Pole or South Pole, cooling and dropping to the ground, then moving toward slightly warmer climes at 60 degrees. This subset of air movement is known as a polar Hadley cell. Figure in the effect of the earth’s tilt and rotation with the movement of air masses and you have most of the ingredients for weather change.