Belfort Instrument Information

Author: Steve Gillman

Do you think better weather forecasting requires a degree in meteorology? Maybe a degree in statistical analysis would be more helpful. Consider this following new way to forecast the weather with more accuracy and less knowledge.

Friday, February 2, 2007 - Canon City, Colorado. I brought in my Canon City Daily Record from the porch when it arrived, at about 3 in the afternoon. I opened the newspaper to the page with the weather forecast, wondering how cold it would be the following day.

The paper forecast a high temperature was 13 degrees Fahrenheit. I knew this was way too low. Forecasts on television and on the internet said that we would reach 23 or 27 degrees the following day. I knew they were also too low, and I told my wife it would be in the 30s at least. The actual high temperature the next day was 53 degrees Fahrenheit.

No, that’s not a typo. The various weather forecasting “experts” were off by as much as 40 degrees - and that was for a simple 24-hour forecast. How could they be so far off? And how could I be better than them at forecasting the weather?

I can’t answer the first question. The weather here is more unpredictable than in most places. Also, perhaps the meteorologists follow there computer models too slavishly, even when their experience and intuition tell them to adjust the forecast.

However, I can answer the second question. My guess was closer because the forecasters were so consistent in the way they made their errors. Around this time, I remember counting something like 15 out of 20 days when all the various weather forecasts predicted a high temperature that was 5 degrees or more too low. All I needed to do was take the highest temperature forecast and add five degrees.

A New Weather Forecasting Model

Consistency in their errors was the key to my success. They weren’t forecasting too high one day and too low the next. They were wrong in the same ways over and over.

Are the errors as consistent in other parts of the country? That could be determined by looking at the statistics. Check the forecast highs and lows for the last 365 days, and check the actual temperatures for those days. See what the predicted probabilities of rain or snow were, and what actually happened.

Suppose that of the last 24 times a forecaster predicted a 50% chance of rain, it actually rained 18 times. He may have the best data, but he may be too conservative in how he uses it. Suppose this was not a fluke - which can be determined by doing more statistical analysis. You could know nothing about weather forecasting and provide a more accurate forecast simply by saying “A 75% chance of rain tomorrow” every time he said there was a 50% chance, right?

That’s the basis for this new forecasting model. First gather the statistical information on the forecasts of several weather forecasting services or meteorologists. Compare this to the actual weather that happened, and look for any consistencies in the inaccuracies. Then you create a computer program. As you enter each of these forecasts into it, they are adjusted for known tendencies. The result is a more accurate forecast.

If Forecaster A has managed over the last year to forecast a high that averages 4 degrees over the actual high, the computer adjusts for that. More sophisticated analysis might show that Forecaster B is consistently predicting a higher probability of rain than there is in the fall, but a lower probability of rain than there actually is in the spring. The computer can take this into account. Finally, it may work best if the adjusted forecasts of three or more sources are then averaged.

There really is no need to know anything at all about weather forecasting. This is based on the idea that even when experts have all the best knowledge and data, they sometimes apply it incorrectly, and do so in consistent ways. Don’t be surprised if some television stations get rid of their meteorologists and take advantage of this new weather forecasting idea.

“Now your electronic weather forecast, from our Statistical Analysis Weather Machine.”

Author: Marcia Singh
As Human Beings, we should all have the common goal of valuing the choices that will lead to enhancement of our Personal lives, our Communities and our Earth. In order for our Environment to be Healthy, the People within it must also be Healthy. We do this by becoming aware of the products that we use in our day to day lives, by living healthier lifestyles and through personal development.

Us as Humans tend to exploit our Environment. The same environment that we depend on for clean air and water. If our Environment does not protect us from harmful UV rays, does not prevent the spread of disease causing organisms and control pests then how will it sustain us?

Our Ecosystem has a natural balance which we should try to maintain. By using natural products we can reduce the amount of waste material we release into the environment. We can contribute to climate stability by simply planting more trees, which reduces Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere and hence reducing respiratory illnesses. A cleaner environment will have less disease causing organism and hence a healthier population.
Global Warming is a major concern. Global warming describes changes in climate due to human influence and results in increased temperatures. Naturally occurring processes contribute to Global Warming. Some of these include greenhouse emission of gases like Carbon Dioxide, water vapor, ozone, volcanic emissions and solar activity.

Increases in temperature can have devastating effects on us and our environment. Disease carrying organisms favor warmer temperatures, an example of which is the mosquito which spreads dengue fever which can be fatal. Increase in the number of disease causing organism can lead to increase in human mortality.
Other negative effects of Global Warming are increase in sea levels and subsequent damage to coastlines, increase in intensity and extreme weather conditions which can wipe out whole communities. Glacier retreat presents a problem. Fewer crops will be produced leading to greater malnutrition, less healthy individuals and animals.
Unnatural increase in greenhouse gases result from industrial production by burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

Many Environmental groups are advocating for action against Global Warming on the Consumer level. We can do our part by equipping our houses with environmentally friendly products and saving money at the same time through our purchases and changing lifestyles.

We need to be aware that their are Companies that also value our Environment, are aggressively promoting products that contribute to Healthy Lifestyles. Gaiam, pronounced Guy-Um, is one such Company. They are not only merchants for Health and fitness related products and services, but also are involved with conservation programs that so far have resulted in the planting of 52,000 trees which of course will increase absorption of Carbon Dioxide.

Gaiam’s products reflect Gaiam’s commitment to ensuring that our World is Healthier because we are utilizing eco-friendly products and Gaiam is delivering services that ensure our personal development.

In addition to media, Gaiam’s products include mind-body fitness and wellness solutions, organic cotton apparel and home textiles, and renewable energy solutions.
Let us renew our commitment to making ourselves both Healthy in mind and body and helping to preserve our home by using eco- friendly products.We might seem insignificant in the big picture, but our contributions will eventually add up.